Predictions & Predicaments
November 2, 2020
4:32pm. November 2nd. There’s an uneasiness today. An anticipation of some sort. It’s almost as if America is holding her breath, watching—waiting—for something to happen. Even while I am writing this, I am anxious for what is to come. America is more divided now than ever, and tomorrow could really change the tide. The waves could calm, the unlikely outcome, or they could worsen, throwing America into the eye of the hurricane. Or maybe neither? Maybe we will remain at some sort of status-quo. My point being, we don’t know what will happen, on either side. These are confusing times, and it would be out of character if the election did not follow the same pattern.
Last election, Secretary Clinton was projected to win by 10 points. It was almost as if she had it in the bag. Many of her followers and team thought it was set in stone. They even had fireworks planned. But then, out of nowhere, President Trump took battleground states: Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and others. With that, the fireworks were cancelled. What seemed like a win in the bag, turned out to be an example of misconstrued polls, specifically in battleground states.
The biggest issue was that the polls did not account for the amount of education someone received. Basically, white voters who did not attend college were not correctly weighted. Therefore giving Clinton a wide gap. But what about this year’s polls?
Of course, nothing is given 100% certainty. Nothing is really set in stone, but it just feels different this time around. Four years ago, racial issues weren’t as prominent as they are now, and there wasn’t a widespread pandemic. Personally, I would say take the polls with a grain of salt and trust the more reputable ones. Chances are the election will probably be a little closer than projected due to the margin of error. That being said, I have a few predictions for this year’s election.
The Trump Blowout Scenario (Unlikely)
Even though the polls pointing towards Biden could be wrong, there is a little to no chance Trump will win by a landslide. Here is what a Trump Blowout Scenario could look like:
I gave him key states Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, despite him trailing in some of these states, similar to a 2016 mishap. However, this is most likely not going to happen.
The Trump-wins-by-a-little Scenario
Given what happened in 2016, this is very likely. Despite the polls having Biden winning the election, Trump could still come back and win key-states such as Nevada or Pennsylvania.
Biden Blowout (Unlikely)
Although unlikely, there is still a slight chance this could happen, even though it probably won’t. As of now, Georgia is leaning towards the Democrats, so I gave Biden that one. I don’t believe this will happen, but it is still a possibility.
The Biden Victory (Most Likely scenario)
For this one, I think two options are plausible. An insanely close outcome or a little bit more of a lead.
Whatever happens, it will be definitely interesting and worthwhile to watch!
